Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.251627 0.305515 0.371136 0.457920 0.571177 0.716088 9.190270e-01
2025-05-04 0.169454 0.224157 0.298493 0.409650 0.576642 0.826857 1.248108e+00
2025-05-11 0.119273 0.168579 0.241638 0.362503 0.567495 0.922065 1.635989e+00
2025-05-18 0.084948 0.126519 0.192560 0.311399 0.535285 0.976506 2.033124e+00
2025-05-25 0.062330 0.096960 0.155302 0.268238 0.502070 1.022958 2.506467e+00
2025-06-01 0.049583 0.080541 0.135873 0.251393 0.516023 1.192256 3.563260e+00
2025-06-08 0.040445 0.068318 0.120913 0.238817 0.536886 1.413356 5.280276e+00
2025-06-15 0.033951 0.059500 0.110265 0.232263 0.573009 1.736244 8.436669e+00
2025-06-22 0.028890 0.052352 0.101239 0.226683 0.612811 2.149313 1.412626e+01
2025-06-29 0.024146 0.044898 0.089777 0.211113 0.615658 2.453244 2.158544e+01
2025-07-06 0.018759 0.035212 0.071282 0.170721 0.512469 2.147448 2.137442e+01
2025-07-13 0.016478 0.031706 0.066315 0.166821 0.542012 2.619648 3.810074e+01
2025-07-20 0.014727 0.029165 0.063398 0.169217 0.606839 3.542845 9.240372e+01
2025-07-27 0.013397 0.027322 0.061809 0.175670 0.702364 5.129127 3.158751e+02
2025-08-03 0.012040 0.025168 0.058908 0.176851 0.780299 7.091855 1.329330e+03
2025-08-10 0.010623 0.022620 0.054332 0.170182 0.812437 8.905414 6.304193e+03
2025-08-17 0.009352 0.020224 0.049646 0.161242 0.824847 10.764710 4.944808e+04
2025-08-24 0.008538 0.018842 0.047609 0.162364 0.914202 15.468423 3.220683e+08
2025-08-31 0.007834 0.017624 0.045783 0.163767 1.015967 22.885020 NaN
2025-09-07 0.007260 0.016654 0.044509 0.167314 1.152308 36.459688 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006739 0.015740 0.043198 0.170264 1.300237 59.808502 NaN
2025-09-21 0.006132 0.014493 0.040485 0.164758 1.352008 82.891397 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005250 0.012366 0.034366 0.138561 1.113294 62.579839 NaN